August 19, 2008
Obama's Alternate Universe
The Refugee couldn't believe his ears. He was listening to Fox News on satellite radio and heard E.D. Hill inteviewing an Obama spokesperson about tax issues (Laura somebody-or-other; The Refugee was not quick enough on the uptake to get her last name while driving). E.D. asked about Obama's plans to increase taxes, and the spokesperson indicated that Obama was going to actually cut taxes. The conversation went something like this:
E.D.: "But won't Obama increase the capital gains tax?"
Spokesperson: "No. Obama has proposed a capital gains tax rate of 20%, which is lower than the rate in the 1990's. Therefore, it's actually an overall economic tax cut."
WOW!! So, if the rate is lower than at any point in history, it's a cut. The Refugee perhaps should not be so shocked, as this is from the same party that calls a 3% budget increase a spending cut (because it was less than 5%). Even so, what alternative universe is Obama in? That's like a doctor telling a patient that he's really lucky to have lung cancer - because he doesn't also have brain and liver cancer.
Actually, this rationale speaks less to Obama's economic acumen than it does to his regard for the body politic. Apparently, he thinks we're all a bunch of frickin' idiots if he thinks we're going buy this dog food.
Plague of Locusts
I don't link to Taranto too much because the ThreeSourcers I know live and die by BOTW. But I have to use a hometown/personal angle on this one. The second I heard that the Obama Ego was too big to be contained by the Pepsi Center and that the Senator would give his acceptance speech at Invesco, I thought of torrential downpours. It's not likely in late August, but nothing is impossible in Colorado. I guess I was right:
Denver's Rocky Mountain News reports on other possible disruptions:
Planners of Barack Obama's acceptance speech for the Democratic presidential nomination at Invesco Field may want to keep a weather-eye out for history of a different kind.
Think: grasshopper swarms blotting out the sun and lightening [sic] strikes, marble-size hail and 53 mph winds.
All these have occurred in the Denver area on Aug. 28 through recorded history, according to National Weather Service. . . .
Records show Aug. 28, 1875 was smack in the midst of a 12-day swarm of grasshoppers that "almost darkened the sun," blanketed streets, "devastated" Denverites' gardens and devoured ripening grain crops in the countryside..
I had also heard that Focus on the Family was jeered for suggesting that visitors to its website pray for rain. Folks, I am not a praying man and I know we've got all stripes around here. But a plague of locusts to darken the sun -- that's worth a little prayer.
Let me know if you hear of talk about boils, water turning red threats to anyones' first-born. Where's Moses when you need him?
Google Amenities
Pretty sweet setup for bloggers (like yours truly) traveling to the conventions.
Not only will bloggers have Internet access, workspaces and couches for napping in the "Big Tent" headquarters, they will be provided food and beverages, Google-sponsored massages, smoothies and a candy buffet. On the final night of the convention, Google is co-sponsoring a bash with Vanity Fair magazine for convention-goers and journalists that has become one of the hottest party invites.
Google will offer similar amenities for bloggers and new-media reporters who attend the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., company officials say. It will demo a variety of new political tools next week, including a search function on YouTube that will offer almost real-time keyword searches of convention speech videos.
At the Republican convention, about 200 bloggers have been credentialed to attend and work from the press filing center. They will have the same access as reporters. That is up from about a dozen bloggers who were credentialed in 2004, according to Joanna Burgos, a convention spokeswoman.
Change I Can Believe In
Of all the bad things in our political system, one of the worst has got to be "walking around money" for traditional machine politics for use on bribes, or gas, or phone calls, or bribes or food for volunteers, or even bribes. Ed Morrissey in HotAir:
Last April, I complimented Barack Obama for his principled stand against the corrupt practice of providing “street money” to political organizers in Philadelphia. He insisted that his new kind of politics didn’t allow for the cash-on-demand tradition in Philadelphia, and that his organization would remain voluntary. Even with ward bosses playing the race card against him in response — claiming that Obama spent his money at “white” television stations instead of on black volunteers through street money — Obama held firm.
That was then. This, unfortunately, is now.
"Obama held firm." Until it looked like there might be consequences. Sheeesh!
Hat-tip: PAH2O
jk Turns Hawkish on Inflation
I have been the inflation dove around ThreeSources. I still consider a core CPI in the low "twos" to be manageable, but I think we are getting beyond that and am willing to concede that long term headline inflation cannot be ignored.
Brian Wesbury has an excellent guest editorial in the WSJ today. The First Trust Advisors Chief Economist and frequent Kudlow guest is a smart guy and a cool head. He's pretty slow to call for falling skies, but he has some serious 1970s-ish concerns about where we are now.
One would think that the odds of a repeat [of 1970s inflation] were low, and for 20 years, after Ronald Reagan and his Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had the courage to get inflation under control with tight money and tax cuts, this was true. Unfortunately, the lessons seem to be fading. Today, the U.S. (and through it the world) faces its greatest threat from inflation in 30 years. And as in the past, this threat is being met with denial and political expediency.
Today's problems began seven years ago in 2001, when the Federal Reserve overreacted to the deflationary mistake it made in the late 1990s. The Fed vigorously pumped money into the economy in order to drive interest rates down rapidly.
Though I am still not calling for Bernanke's head on a pike, any fair observer would have to suggest that he is no Volcker. And I've seen the guys running for President -- neither is Ronald Reagan.
A good economist should be smart and lucky, and Wesbury may be both. The day his column runs, the WSJ news pages report a 27-year record rise in the PPI last month.
I think the FOMC's taking back 25 bps and suggesting another before year end would send a strong signal and leave us with what no sane person would call "tight money."
I'd suggest the Wesbury piece to even ThreeSourcers who do not get animated about monetary policy (odd eggs that you are). It's very readable and accessible.
August 18, 2008
Reading Racism Between the Lines
In a year when it is racist to call Senator Obama "skinny," Paul Waldman, writing at The American Prospect, has realized that the Obama Energy Plan Tire Gauge -- much beloved by some ThreeSourcers -- is actually a, um, I think I'll let him say it:
The message couldn't be plainer: See that itty-bitty, little tire gauge? If you vote for Obama, that's how big your penis is. If you vote for McCain, on the other hand, your penis is as big as this [working oil] rig, thrusting its gigantic shaft in and out of the ground! Real men think keeping your tires inflated is for weenies.
Wow. I missed the PoMo, feminist collegiate experience by: a) being old, b) studying math and hard science, and c) dropping out. But I have encountered it because I read a lot of literary criticism of Buffy and Angel (sometimes a sword is just a sword, Doctor).
If every candidate is going to have to justify the double indirection parsing of his or her words, we're going to get even farther away from a serious philosophical election.
Hat-tip: Attila (who else?), reminding that I have been remiss in not linking to "When CPA Means 'Jew'," even though I have laughed about it every day since I read it. Riffing off the "skinny" contretemps, Attila recalls the 2000 Lieberman-Cheney debate:
. . . and it's really quite obvious that Cheney's reference to CPAs is a not-so-veiled allusion to Lieberman's Jewish background. What Cheney said was, "You have to be a CPA to understand what he just said." A CPA. Get it? He could just as easily have said, "You have to be a Jew to understand what that Jew just said." And then Cheney went on to say, "The fact of the matter is the plan is so complex that the ordinary American is never going to ever figure out what they even qualify for." The "ordinary American," as opposed to the Jew. That's not very subtle, either, painting the Jew as the Other.
McCain: The Cheater
... and Obama: The Liar (again).
It'd be nice for the Obama campaign to get their act together.
John Fund's Political Diary:
For its part, the Obama campaign officially says it now assumes both candidates were equally unaware of the questions and isn't interested in pursuing the matter. Interestingly enough, Mr. McCain's campaign is and has written a letter to NBC News citing Ms. Mitchell's ruminations as evidence of bias in its campaign coverage. "Instead of taking a critical journalistic approach to this spin, Andrea Mitchell did what has become a pattern for her of simply repeating Obama campaign talking points," wrote campaign manager Rick Davis. "This is irresponsible journalism and sadly indicative of the level of objectivity we have witnessed at NBC News this election cycle."
The Playbook @ the Politico
So it turns out that Pastor Rick Warren, in an effort to increase the candidates’ comfort level with his pioneering format, gave each of them a heads-up on several of the hardest questions he asked Saturday night during his “the Saddleback Civil Forum on the presidency.”
A source close to Warren tells Playbook that the candidates knew in advance they would be asked their own greatest moral failure, America’s greatest moral failure, and the three wisest people in their lives.
The source said Obama also knew he would be asked if he’d be willing to commit to an emergency plan for orphans, like President Bush has for AIDS. GIVE OBAMA CREDIT FOR ANSWERING CANDIDLY: “I cheated a little bit. I actually looked at this idea ahead of time, and I think it is a great idea.”
It does take the air out of the McCain grand slam performance, but makes the Messiah look even more like a tool. So it's still a net win for McCain.
Woo!
Your New Friends, Governor.
We need to switch to renewable energy, but we can't build anything. Environmentalists don't want to build the transmission lines to connect T. Boone Pickens's wind farms with consumers.
Even smaller scale projects are getting axed.
WSJ Ed Page:
In California, hundreds turned out at the end of July to protest a connection between the solar and geothermal fields of the Imperial Valley to Los Angeles and Orange County. The environmental class is likewise lobbying state commissioners to kill a 150-mile link between San Diego and solar panels because it would entail a 20-mile jaunt through Anza-Borrego state park. "It's kind of schizophrenic behavior," Arnold Schwarzenegger said recently. "They say that we want renewable energy, but we don't want you to put it anywhere."
Go ahead, say "It's kind of schizophrenic behavior" in your best Arnold Schwarzenegger voice -- I'll wait.
My buddies on the Ed Page have discovered the real agenda:
In other words, the liberal push for alternatives has the look of a huge bait-and-switch. Washington responds to the climate change panic with multibillion-dollar taxpayer subsidies for supposedly clean tech. But then when those incentives start to have an effect in the real world, the same greens who favor the subsidies say build the turbines or towers somewhere else. The only energy sources they seem to like are the ones we don't have.
Let the bastards freeze in the dark!
Exactly right. They don't want "alternative energy sources;" they want "alternatives to energy sources." The only energy they'll endorse is naturally harvested sunlight and the only commercial product they won't oppose is hemp.
Unlike Charlie Brown, Americans will eventually recognize that the greens keep pulling the football away. I'm seriously hoping that a majority do so before November 4th.
McCain Cheated
Awesome-tacular.
Obama did such a shitty job at the Saddleback Church that McCain must have cheated.
How else to explain it?
The debates are going to be fabulous.
Things aren't going our way.... waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!
Placed the audio HERE ... McCain's answers were more mature, I have no idea why Obama was not completely on his game.
One word: Teleprompter. (Or lack thereof.)
I dunno, jg, I fear a false sense of security in the "no-teleprompter" camp. McCain happened to be extraordinary last Saturday, Obama was superb. No teleprompter, no problem.
Search for Missing Students a Lost Cause
The Refugee apologizes for the misleading headling, but is certain the reader will see the point in a moment. In a guest editorial in in yesterday's Sunday Denver Post, Susan Barnes-Gelt questions the benefits of a proposed $434 million bond issue being proposed by Denver Public Schools. Barnes-Gelt claims to be an "unrepentant urban liberal," but The Refugee is sure her credentials have been revoked by now; she presents a very coherent and skeptical questioning of the benefits that the DPS will gain from the additional money.
While The Refugee applauds a rare critical eye by a liberal toward educational funding, he was nonetheless unsurprised by the tenor of the argument. It actually followed traditional liberal orthodoxy in the school funding debate. That is, not once - not even once - did Barnes-Gelt mention the impact on students, either good or bad, from the bond issue.
And, that's the crux of the problem in our school funding debate. Even when benefits of lower class sizes and better facilities are touted, it's really about teacher convenience, not student achievement. A smaller class requires less work and who doesn't want new, modern facilities and tools? If students benefit, it's a happy coincidence.
The Refugee would like the legislature to enact a law requiring school districts to make one declarative statement when requesting funding: "If the schools receive the requested funds, test scores will increase x% and graduation rates will increase y% within z timeframe." Now that's real accountability. Which is why the teacher's union would never stand for it and liberals would oppose it. But, it's a question taxpayers should pose and demand an answer.
The Thomas-Obama Smackdown!!!
Maybe it was a gaffe: the WSJ Ed page piles on:
And no wonder Mr. Obama's advisers have refused invitations for more such open forums, preferring to keep him in front of a teleprompter, where he won't let slip what he really believes.
Thus endeth
the editorial that says by all means, let's compare Clarence Thomas's record with Senator Obama's:
So let's see. By the time he was nominated, Clarence Thomas had worked in the Missouri Attorney General's office, served as an Assistant Secretary of Education, run the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and sat for a year on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, the nation's second most prominent court. Since his "elevation" to the High Court in 1991, he has also shown himself to be a principled and scholarly jurist.
Meanwhile, as he bids to be America's Commander in Chief, Mr. Obama isn't yet four years out of the Illinois state Senate, has never held a hearing of note of his U.S. Senate subcommittee, and had an unremarkable record as both a "community organizer" and law school lecturer. Justice Thomas's judicial credentials compare favorably to Mr. Obama's Presidential résumé by any measure. And when it comes to rising from difficult circumstances, Justice Thomas's rural Georgian upbringing makes Mr. Obama's story look like easy street.
Even more troubling is what the Illinois Democrat's answer betrays about his political habits of mind. Asked a question he didn't expect at a rare unscripted event, the rookie candidate didn't merely say he disagreed with Justice Thomas. Instead, he instinctively reverted to the leftwing cliché that the Court's black conservative isn't up to the job while his white conservative colleagues are.
Majority Leader Reid went down this road and was unable to offer any backing for his contentions that Justice Thomas's opinions were not well crafted. I hope future debate panelists and journalists will push this one against Obama as well.
August 17, 2008
An Awesome (Non) Debate
I was incredibly impressed with the "Saddleback Church Civil Forum." Saddleback is a humongous mega-church (not one of the small mega-churches) in Orange County, California. And its Pastor, Rick Warren, sat down with each candidate separately and asked the same set of questions.
Warren called for civility in political discourse both to begin and close the event. The pastor practiced what he preaches [I don’t care who you are, that’s a good line] giving each candidate a friendly, non-confrontational platform and a lot of latitude to set the pace and tone of his segment.
Senator Obama went first, by coin toss (I wondered if McCain won, but wanted to sit in the green chair, but I cannot get an answer) and McCain was offstage in a "cone of silence" (Warren's joke) so that he would not hear the questions.
Senator Obama was awesome in every way. As a McCain supporter, I have been lulled into the he-can't-speak-without-a-telepromter meme. You guys can put that away, now. Senator O was engaging and charming, showing off equal charisma and intellect. His answers were long and discursive. If my lefty brother were watching, he'd be thrilled at the nuance. There were no 57 state gaffes. A member of a FOXNews panel thought that a super-nuanced answer on abortion was a gaffe. I didn't see it that way.
As he left the stage, I thought "if this man shows up at the debates, he'll win 40 states."
Then Senator McCain came out and bested him. Where Obama was thoughtful and discursive, McCain was pointed and principled -- not brusqueness but moral clarity. Even on issues I disagree with Senator Mac, I had to appreciate his clarity. He hit several questions out of the park, and was gaffe free as well. And -- as well - a FOXNews pundit said that he had gaffed with an answer to "what defines rich?" McCain refused to answer, saying that "I'm not going to tax the rich, so I don't need to define them." Fine with me, Senator. Then he laughed and said "$5 million/year" -- quickly pointing out after that the point will be taken out of context and used against him. Home run, clear the bases. Four RBIs.
As McCain left the stage I said "If that man shows up at the debates, he'll win 40 states."
Lastly, I would like to see more of this type of forum. I was queasy to see a big-church big-money pastor leading this, but Warren did a great job and the venue was ideal. The crowd leaned a little right but was very supportive of both.
Why not follow this with the same deal at the NYSE? An economic focus, with a panel of CEOs and financial journalists. Race relations at the MLK memorial? It provided more insight than any of the debates I've seen. It was a little aggravating that there were no follow ups or attempts to stop misdirection, but at the same time, viewers can and will judge the candidates by their evasions as well as their answers.
If you missed this and get another chance, run this one down; it was on all the cable networks and I imagine it will be rerun.
I disagree... his "super nuanced" abortion line was a gaffe.
If you can't run on your experience, you have to sell us your judgement.... and his judgment on that was to not answer honestly.
His position on abortion & start of life is well defined by his somewhat limited voting record.
Hope you're right. My response would be that nobody who is staunchly pro-life will be voting for him anyway. I don't think he scared away any of the squishes by saying "that's above my pay grade."
I am starting to think (reading punditry) that he might have gaffed by saying that Judge Clarence Thomas lacked the exper -- I mean jurisprudential skills -- to be on the Supreme Court. Some might feel that Senator Obama lacks the exper -- I mean the temperament -- to be President.
Brother ac has the tape.
Buy American, Vore Obama
I blog on the shoulders of giants today:
The new Obama logo (the seal wasn't stupid enough??????)

Courtesy of Riehl World View
George Carlin:
Courtesy of Tigerhawk.
August 16, 2008
Kobe!
Kobe Bryant is interviewed by NBC's Chris Collinsworth;
Collinsworth: Tell the story when you first got your USA uniform.
Kobe: Well I had goosebumps and I actually just looked at it for awhile. I just held it there and I laid it across my bed and I just stared at it for a few minutes; just because as a kid growing up this is the ultimate, ultimate in basketball.
Collinsworth: Where does the patriotism come from inside of you? Historically, what is it?
Kobe: Well, you know it’s just our country, it’s... we believe is the greatest country in the world. It has given us so many great opportunities, and it’s just a sense of pride that you have; that you say "You know what? Our country is the best!"
Collinsworth: Is that a ‘cool’ thing to say, in this day and age? That you love your country, and that you’re fighting for the red, white and blue? It seems sort of like a day gone by(?)
Kobe: No, it’s a cool thing for me to say. I feel great about it, and I’m not ashamed to say it. I mean, this is a tremendous honor.
Cool with me, too Mister Bryant.
Ms.Underestimated has the video. Hat-tip:
Gateway Pundit via
Insty
Vlad, You've Got Mail
Kathleen Parker writes a hilarious column, suggesting letters to Vladimir Putin from President Bush, Senator Obama, and Senator McCain.
Hat-tip: I Think ^(Link) Therefore I Err
August 15, 2008
Kudlow on Obamanomics
If, like me, you find yourself suffering from Kudlow withdrawal (sorry, the Olympics does not hold up to a good K&C), you can get a little relief on his blog. Today, Kudlow posts a long and thoughtful response to the Furman/Goolsbee tax plan posted in the WSJ this week.
He opens that it represents a "flip-flop" toward supply side thinking. That is a common -- but I think overly generous -- view. Many on the right seem surprised that he might leave some money in private pockets. Over the course of the post, however, he knocks down much of the premises:
Nonetheless, it appears the Obama people acknowledge at least some effects from supply-side incentives. And perhaps they are implicitly recognizing the likelihood that higher tax rates on cap-gains and dividends will generate lower revenues and a higher budget deficit.
It also seems clear that the Obama tax plan is not a growth policy, but a social policy that uses tax fairness as a means of redistributing income. There’s a long history of failed redistributionism, and this is where the Obama plan falls apart.
Read the whole thing (in between Men's basket weaving and tiddly-winks).
VP Gore in Town?
It's freezing for Colorado in mid-August. 51F at Atlantis Farm.
Anecdotal, I know, but brrr.
Roan Blown
The oil and gas lease auction for Colorado's gas-rich Roan Plateau was held yesterday and generated $114 million, just 1/20th of what some had predicted. Those who have followed the Roan process and debate know that Gov. Ritter and the Democrat legislature have been working diligently to raise taxes on energy producers, including proposed referendums and radio ads demagoging these producers. Senator Salazar has been working in Congress to increase the already-byzantine permitting process to make it simply not worth the effort. The significantly lower lease bids demonstrates that producers factored higher taxes, increased administrative costs and greater uncertainty and thus discounted their bids accordingly. Perfectly rational.
Do you suppose that Ritter, Salazar (the senator who would said he would not support expanded domestic drilling at $10 a gallon) and the Dems learned a lesson in basic economics? Do you further suppose that they now understand that companies are tax collectors, not tax payers? Maybe they concluded that raising taxes leads to lower revenue? Of course not. Who did they blame? President Bush, of course. The Refugee hopes that Ritter is merely playing politics not just plain stupid.
The Refugee, a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, has been pleasantly surprised by previous Democratic governors (ie., Dick Lamm and to a lesser extent Roy Romer.) However, The Refugee had low expectations of Ritter, expectations that Ritter continues to fail to achieve. This guy is terrible, and Colorado's tax coffers are suffering as a result.
Great post; I had missed that entirely. All these same Democrats will prohibit companies from exploring and drilling -- and will then ask "why companies are not using the leases they have now?"
Our state is lost, and I see little hope in the Colorado GOP or new voters' having the capacity or wisdom to resist it. I'm usually pretty upbeat. But I think brother jg is right: the state coffers are a golden goose to be fleeced by those who oppose the policies that created the gold.
Goolsbee Vs. Heraclitus
Professor Austan Goolsbee keeps telling anybody who will listen that Senator Obama's tax cuts won't hurt because he will be raising them to near or below the rates of the 1990s (fish jump; cotton high). If he won't listen to Milton Friedman or Art Laffer, I'd suggest he might give a little weight to Heraclitus. Heraclitus said "you don't step into the same river twice."
Since President Clinton presidented over prosperity, the rest of the world listened to Friedman and Laffer and lowered their tax rates. James Pethokoukis points out that the direction of rate change and the state of the economy is as important as rates. The Wall Street Journal Editorial page (I sense Stephen Moore's hand in this) points out that the relative rates of world countries is important:

Back to Heraclitus, you can't step into that 1998 river in 2008. You're going to increase the uncompetitive differential of locating business in the United States.
Liberal idiots who keep parroting Paul Krugman's 1995 line, "And remember President Clinton's tax hike ushered in an economic boom" need to be taken out and clubbed to death, just like we used to do to seals.
There were three main reasons the 1990s were prosperous. Only two was within the powers of the federal government, and they sure as hell weren't tax hikes:
1. NAFTA. To his credit, Bubba bucked his own party in pushing for this.
2. The cut in capital gains taxes, which didn't occur until toward the end of Clinton's presidency. This only because a Republican Congress pushed for it.
3. The massive growth in technological globalization, not just the Internet, but the fiberoptic lines allowing cheap, large-volume communication lines around the world. This wouldn't have happened to the same extent had it not been for the second reason. Putting aside the stock market bubble (which the Fed created), the massive investment in new technology wouldn't have happened if investors didn't have the incentive of lower taxes on their investment.
Paul Krugman and Robert Rubin claim that tax hikes created the "economic boom" this way: by reducing budget deficits, interest rates
There are two reasons why this is horse manure. First, "crowding out" is a myth insofar as federal borrowing and interest rates. It would be true if the U.S. economy were a closed box, but the federal government borrows so much from international sources. And think about it: the federal government borrows from China, which got the money from American consumers in the first place.
Second, even were this true, the economic growth began before the budget deficit supposedly started shrinking. Bubba's tax hikes never balanced the federal budget, anyway. Even in the late 1990s, the "surplus" was a lie: the Social Security surplus is always used to mask the true deficit. Oh, and the increase in economic growth produced higher tax revenues, but for the reasons stated above and NOT tax increases. The higher tax revenues included...Social Security payroll taxes! So what really happened with the "incredible shrinking deficit" wasn't because of tax hikes or sudden spending restraints, but because of increased tax revenues from increased prosperity.
The CBO data (http://www.cbo.gov/budget/data/historical.shtml) proves it. Year-on-year growth in federal spending was 2.2%, 3.4% and 5.8% in 1991, 1992 and 1993. Bubba gets elected, and suddenly spending grows (again year-on-year) at 9% in 1994, 7.4% in 1995, 7.5% in 1996, 8.7% in 1997, 9% in 1999, and TEN POINT EIGHT PERCENT in 2000.
A lot of conservatives claim that the "gridlock" of Clinton and the GOP Congress helped check federal spending, but the numbers just don't show that. It was the *budget* that went down, but federal spending went up astronomically.
Another thing the budget numbers show is that the initial 1993 tax hike admittedly *did* increase federal revenues...for just a couple of years. There was 3.7% year-on-year growth in 1994 and 1995 federal tax revenues. But once people started noticing the taxes hitting them, federal tax revenues started increasing at a slower pace: only 2.9% and 2.6% growth in 1996 and 1997. In other words, people didn't want to produce as much. But then in 1998, back to 3.2% growth -- now was it really a coincidence it happened just as cap gains taxes were cut?
Oh, actually I'll have to correct some of those budget numbers later on. I was a bit rushed in making the spreadsheet.
August 14, 2008
The Game Show Problem
How about a little Math, Scarecrow?
The best ones look simple but are counter-intuitive. And I will admit, I didn't get this. Even after reading this good explanation (ain't the Internet grand?) I reluctantly came around.
I saw this in the movie "21," a decent (3.675 starts) if imperfect flick. They gave it enough time that I felt they must have had good backing, but I couldn't get it. It's "The Game Show Problem" and our beloved protagonist, Ben Campbell, solves it correctly to ingratiate himself with his professor at MIT (played by Kevin Spacey) and eventually secure his spot on the school's unofficial intermural blackjack squad.
Here it is, identical to its appearance in 21:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?
I watched the movie twice and gave the screen the angled-head-quizzical-dog look both times. I majored in Math (probability was not my thing, and I left school to pursue a music career) but it seems like third grade rules apply, that once the door is opened, you have a 50-50 shot with either door. I err in good company; many of the PhD commenters make the same claim.
Writing a little java program to test it empirically, it becomes obvious. Sticking with Door #1, you will win only if it is in there (33%). The host will not show you the car, so switching gives you the known best choice of the other two.
Counterintuitive. Clever. I would not have made the Blackjack team.
UPDATE: I just ran the computer program 1,000,000 times (boy, my finger is tired!) and sticking with door 1 wins 33.3134%, switching 66.6866%
This really is fascinating. The Refugee likes to dabble in statistics and probability (albeit from a mundane marketing perspective). At a macro level, it demonstrates how human intervention changes probability. As one of the teachers commented, I'm not sure how one would write a formula for this - and that's the point. The Refugee needs to ponder the related implications for a while.
I refused to believe it until I was writing the code to test it. There are only two outcomes, that is 100% of the time, you win or you lose. If you choose #1 and stick, you win 33% of the time. Ergo, if you switch (the only other choice), you win (100-33)%
Here's another way to look at it: when picking the first door, you and 1/3 chance of being a winner and therefore a 2/3 chance of being a loser. After being allowed to change sides, you now have 2/3 chance of winning. Odd - counter-intuitive - but real.
Our Man In St. Paul
Our shared resource, AlexC, has been credentialed as a blogger at the RNC convention in St. Paul. He's officially representing PA Water Cooler but told me that he plans to post at both sites. (I'm sure any one of us would help you put stuff up it gets easier to email, brother ac.)
He was wondering about ad schwag -- any suggestions? ThreeSources.com: Home of chocolate bunnies and NATALEE HOLLOWAY pictures t-shirts? Not sure we have the budget for embroidered bomber jackets. Key Chains? Buttons ("Another Stunning Exegesis!")? Pens? flash drives?
Any suggestions? I'd toss a little money at it.
I Kinda Liked Him Better Under the Bus
When Senator Obama selected Professor Austan Goolsbee for his economic team, the news was well received. Even some supply siders recognized Goolsbee as a serious economist, and many were comforted by the University of Chicago. Though never mistaken as one of the "Chicago Boyz," guys like me thought that Milton Friedman's water fountain had magic powers.
As I've complained here before, Goolsbee quickly found hidden talents as a partisan hack. His appearances on Kudlow & Company produced far more talking points than economic commentary. Today, Goolsbee and Obama Economic Policy Director, Jason Furman, pen a guest editorial in the WSJ. The piece purports to calm the business community about the Senator's economic proposals. But it's surprisingly defensive and unsurprisingly (look who's talking) full of partisan hackery. Check the lede:
Even as Barack Obama proposes fiscally responsible tax reform to strengthen our economy and restore the balance that has been lost in recent years, we hear the familiar protests and distortions from the guardians of the broken status quo.
Jeez, you can't argue with these guys. They propose a massive restructuring in the tax code and substantial hikes in marginal rates and in revenues off capital. When people rightfully question that, they get called names.
The rest of the article declares the Obama tax plan as being not as bad as what you have heard or suspected, and the familiar comparison to tax rates in the 90s, when fish jumped and cotton grew high. They provide a few specifics, but when it becomes time to compare their plan to Senator McCain's we get back to name-calling. McCain == Bush:
"The McCain plan represents Bush economics on steroids...Sen. McCain has put forward the most fiscally reckless presidential platform in modern memory. The likely results of his Bush-plus policies are clear...America cannot afford another eight years like these."
The familiar protests and distortions from the guardians of the broken status quo, signing out!
UPDATE: Jimmy P thinks it more significant: With Polls Close, Obama Blinks on Taxes. I'd say that they had never really released details and are now drawing the lines to look more reasonable on taxes. Mister Pethokoukis thinks it a big change in position -- and does a great job fielding the line about how good the economy was in the 1990s with these rates:
Look, it is not just the level of tax rates, it's the direction. Second, the Clinton tax hikes happened after the economy had built up a tremendous head of steam. When Clinton signed his big tax increase bill in August 1993, the economy had been expanding for nine consecutive quarters—more than two years—and was able to power through the negative economic impact of the hikes.
In 2009, the United States might be just emerging from a nasty downturn, only to get hit by a tax increase. Also, recent research shows that tax hikes may be less harmful if accompanied by spending cuts. Yet Obama is planning huge and specific spending increases matched by often vague spending reductions. Clintonomics was all about balancing the budget. This is not a priority for Obama.
Denver Hippies to Mini-Gitmo
Hard to top Allahpundit's opener regarding the prison conditions awaiting DNC protesters.
“Very bare bones and very reminiscent of a political prisoner camp or a concentration camp,” says one Code Pink member after viewing the footage; subtract the crematoria, starvation, back-breaking labor, and any real possibility of being locked up for longer than a few hours and you’ll see the harrowing truth in her words.
Oh yeah, I need to see if they have any part-time guard positions. Maybe take a week off work and do a little Abu-Ghraibing in my old hometown!
August 13, 2008
Libertarians for Obama!
When I suggested that Atlantic's Megan McArdle fit into that narrow intersection in the great Venn Diagram of politics, it was suggested that that was something of an oxymoron (or perhaps somebody called me a moron, I forget).
I replied that the good people at Reason Magazine -- though they have many good reasons to question Senator McCain’s bona fides -- seem too easy on Senator Obama, whom I consider a greater threat to liberty. I offer yet another example. The always worth watching Drew Carey project on Reason.tv:
There's Senator Mac, first and foremost among the Ethanol jockeys. Because he enumerated the energy sources he thinks should be investigated, and mentioned corn-based ethanol at the end of the list. In fact, he was courageous, opposing ethanol subsidies during the Iowa primaries. He has been a foe to the subsidies, fought against and voted against the farm bill. I think Carey confuses support for ethanol, which is okay with support for ethanol subsidies, which he and I would oppose.
There is another fellah running for President from a major party. The name escapes me at the moment, but he advocates a complete government takeover of the energy industry, has been a consistent supporter of ethanol subsidies, and voted for the farm bill.
Yet the good folks at Reason seem awfully reluctant to portray this other guy in a negative light. As a subscriber to Reason, I of course have a conspiracy theory: the Libertarian game this year is to steal votes from McCain. This will "prove" that Libertarians matter, and they will parade their spoilerhood for four years, until they get trounced again in 2012 (I'm guessing Ted Stevens will get the nomination).
UPDATE: I attributed this to Drew Carey as it is listed under the Drew Carey Project on the Reason.TV website although he does not appear. I'll leave it to other Reason readers to come up with a conspiracy theory for that.
Energy Freedom Day
Sign the petition created by Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) calling on Congress to let the drilling bans expire on October 1, 2008.
The related blog page can be accessed here.
Hat Tip: Human Events via Wayne at jeremiahfilms.com
Dave Berry, Call Your Office!
Who will save us from the flying inflatable dog turds? I think I will mail this to James Taranto for his "everything is spinning out of control" section. Blog friend Perry Eidlebus brings us the art news from Switzerland
GENEVA (AFP) — A giant inflatable dog turd by American artist Paul McCarthy blew away from an exhibition in the garden of a Swiss museum, bringing down a power line and breaking a greenhouse window before it landed again, the museum said Monday.
The art work, titled "Complex S(expletive..)", is the size of a house. The wind carried it 200 metres (yards) from the Paul Klee Centre in Berne before it fell back to Earth in the grounds of a children's home, said museum director Juri Steiner.
The inflatable turd broke the window at the children's home when it blew away on the night of July 31, Steiner said. The art work has a safety system which normally makes it deflate when there is a storm, but this did not work when it blew away.
Steiner said McCarthy had not yet been contacted and the museum was not sure if the piece would be put back on display.
UPDATE: Didn't make BOTW. Everything Seemingly Is Spinning Out of Control...
Taranto didn't include this? He's so full of dog ****.